The inconsistent evidence that a Tupolev plane carrying about 100 people crashed close to Smolensk has sparked speculation that the Polish President and top military and civilian leaders could have been diverted to another airport close to Smolensk, and abducted on arrival.
Gerhard Wisnewski evidence suggests the Polish elite could hav been diverted to a little used airport south of Smolensk.
Given the security protocols, it is, however, highly unlikely that so many top ranking government officials boarded any plane together in Warsaw of their free will.
Anyone plotting to kill them most likely wouldnot have risked their protests when they got on the plane and realized that every security rule had been breached. It is hard to see how they could have been marched to the plane in handcuffs.
Also, there is no evidence that the people who were alleged to be on the plane actually boarded any plane at all in Warsaw in the form of videos, photographs, witnesses etc.
Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the Polish elite were abducted in Warsaw, not necessarily even at the airport.
Jadzia Donatowicz has found an audio recording of what appears to be the doomed Polish flight in which the pilot communicates to Smolensk control tower that there are only the four crew on board.
A video has emerged in which four gun shots can be heard at the crash site, prompting speculation that the four surviving crew were killed to remove witnesses.
But Gerhard Wisnewski writing for Info Kopp Verlag suggests that the Polish elite were on the plane, but that it was diverted to an aiport in the south of Smolensk, called Smolensk Yuzhny Airport and with the IATA-Code LNX.
This airport is 9 kilomertes from the military airport north of Smolensk called Smolensk Severny Airfield with the IATA-Code XUBS, where the crash allegedly occurred.
It is little used, and the Polish elite could have been marched straight off under guard qhen they landed, suggests Wisnewski, while a crash was staged in the military airport to explain their disappearance.
However, Smolensk Yuzhny Airport has a runway of only 1.6 kilometres, too short for a Tupolev to land under normal conditions. A Tupolev needs 2.5 kilometres of runway, but using brakes it could land at 1.6 kilometres, argues Wisnewski.
He says the crash site at the military airport was staged.
A comparison between similar crashes of planes at tree height in the past shows that most passengers survived and large portions of the plane remained in tact.
By contrast, in Smolensk, no one surived and there is no sign of the much of the main body of the plane, the fuselage, of the 150 seats, oor of burn or fire marks on the wreckage.
There is no evidence of a significant fire in the form of burnt trees or leaves as might be expected if jet fuel caused the plane to explode as officials state.
The explosion is supposed to have consumed the fuselage.
Wisnewski says the physical evidence that a 225 metre Tupolev crashed is not what would be expected and the the parts of wreckage are too small.
No large parts of wreckage have been found. A photo of the parts of the wreckage reassembled in one place shows that the fuselage is almost completely missing.
The wings look as if they have been cut off by a welder, so clean are the breaks.
Wisnewski argues that all the wreckage parts are small enough to fit onto a truck or other vehicle to be transported from — or to — the crash site.
In addition, the pieces of the wreckage at the crash site appear to be covered in rust. The cockpit shows signs of corrosion.
A Polish journalist who saw the crash, Slawomir Wisniewski, said he saw only parts of the plane, such as the left wing, followed by an explosion. He did not see a whole plane descend, and burst into planes. He said he heard an explosion.
There is, therefore, no witness of the plane falling from the air.
The witnesses interviewed by Russia Today consist of children who could easily be persuaded ot tell a story under the eyes of the Russian military, argues Wisnewski. He points out that one of the boys yawns while his friend is describing seeing blood and parts of bodies everywhere with no visible signs of distress.
The small fires burning among the wreckage look like they were set artificially, Wisnewski argues.
Significantly, there were no sign that a 100 peeople were on board in videos of the crash site. There are no signs of bodies, parts of bodies, parts of clothing, such as shoes, hats, coats etc, no accessories, such as umbrellas, suitcases, briefcases, laptops, mobile phones, no papers, such as newspapers, documents and so.
There were also no ambulances rushing to the scene, no helicopthers, no sign of bodies covered over, no hangar set up to identify bodies, no interviews with first responders and doctors — all of which could be expected.
The absence of bodies would also be consistent with the crash of a plane with four crew members only.