Fears that the United Kingdom could break up because of the Brexit vote receded today after London said it would not consent to a second independence referendum and a poll showed that Scottish people do not want one.
Plans by First Minister Nichola Sturgeon to bring Scotland into the EU are also set to falter on the fact the country’s budget deficit, which is nearly three times that permitted by EU rules.
The budget deficit, due to low oil prices, would require huge fiscal transfers from Brussels to keep Scotland afloat as an “independent” nation in the Eurozone, transfers which are not likely to be forthcoming.
“In order to join the EU you’ve got to have a budget deficit of 3% of GDP or less or be obviously (which allows for some fudging) moving in that direction. And Scotland, now that oil has plummeted, simply is not there. It’s difficult, given the intertwining of British and Scottish accounts to get it exactly right but reasonable estimates have the Scottish alone budget deficit at 8 to 10% of GDP.”
It has also emerged that the Scottish parliament does not have the power to block a Brexit as Sturgeon claimed.